Women's Super League 2026/27

Points vs expected

How many points each team has compared with what goals scored and conceded usually give. To the right more points than the goals usually give, to the left fewer. A team that wins a lot of close games ends up on the right.

Manchester City have 5.2 more points than the goal difference usually gives. Liverpool have 3.4 fewer.

1. 1Manchester City +5.2: Manchester City: 25 points, 19.8 expected
2. 5Manchester United +3.3: Manchester United: 15 points, 11.7 expected
3. 11West Ham +2.3: West Ham: 9 points, 6.7 expected
4. 10Crystal Palace +1.6: Crystal Palace: 9 points, 7.4 expected
5. 9Aston Villa +1.3: Aston Villa: 10 points, 8.7 expected
6. 4Tottenham +0.8: Tottenham: 16 points, 15.2 expected
7. 3London City +0.5: London City: 19 points, 18.5 expected
8. 6Arsenal +0.5: Arsenal: 13 points, 12.5 expected
9. 8Everton +0.4: Everton: 11 points, 10.6 expected
10. 2Chelsea +0.2: Chelsea: 23 points, 22.8 expected
11. 13Birmingham −1.4: Birmingham: 6 points, 7.4 expected
12. 14Charlton −2.2: Charlton: 0 points, 2.2 expected
13. 7Brighton −3.2: Brighton: 11 points, 14.2 expected
14. 12Liverpool −3.4: Liverpool: 8 points, 11.4 expected

Expected points use the Pythagorean formula: goals scored to the power of 1.35 divided by goals scored to the power of 1.35 plus goals conceded to the power of 1.35, times the league average of 1.39 points per team and match. It is a model, not the truth, and the difference is not only luck.

After round 9