Premier League 2026/27

Points vs expected

How many points each team has compared with what goals scored and conceded usually give. To the right more points than the goals usually give, to the left fewer. A team that wins a lot of close games ends up on the right.

Arsenal have 4.7 more points than the goal difference usually gives. Brentford have 3.0 fewer.

1. 1Arsenal +4.7: Arsenal: 27 points, 22.3 expected
2. 3Man City +3.1: Man City: 21 points, 17.9 expected
3. 4Liverpool +1.3: Liverpool: 18 points, 16.7 expected
4. 10Villa +1.1: Villa: 13 points, 11.9 expected
5. 17Coventry +0.9: Coventry: 9 points, 8.1 expected
6. 5Chelsea +0.8: Chelsea: 16 points, 15.2 expected
7. 19Sunderland +0.8: Sunderland: 8 points, 7.2 expected
8. 6Everton +0.7: Everton: 16 points, 15.3 expected
9. 20Palace +0.6: Palace: 7 points, 6.4 expected
10. 12Newcastle +0.3: Newcastle: 12 points, 11.7 expected
11. 7Bournemouth +0.1: Bournemouth: 15 points, 14.9 expected
12. 14Ipswich 0.0: Ipswich: 11 points, 11.0 expected
13. 11Tottenham −0.8: Tottenham: 12 points, 12.8 expected
14. 2Brighton −1.3: Brighton: 22 points, 23.3 expected
15. 16Forest −1.3: Forest: 9 points, 10.3 expected
16. 9Leeds −1.7: Leeds: 14 points, 15.7 expected
17. 15Fulham −2.0: Fulham: 10 points, 12.0 expected
18. 13Hull −2.7: Hull: 11 points, 13.7 expected
19. 18Man United −2.9: Man United: 8 points, 10.9 expected
20. 8Brentford −3.0: Brentford: 14 points, 17.0 expected

Expected points use the Pythagorean formula: goals scored to the power of 1.35 divided by goals scored to the power of 1.35 plus goals conceded to the power of 1.35, times the league average of 1.36 points per team and match. It is a model, not the truth, and the difference is not only luck.

After round 10