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Allsvenskan 2026

Allsvenskan2026

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Senior

Youth

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Points vs expected

How many points each team has compared with what goals scored and conceded usually give. To the right more points than the goals usually give, to the left fewer. A team that wins a lot of close games ends up on the right.

Sirius have 6.7 more points than the goal difference usually gives. GAIS have 5.1 fewer.

  1. 2Sirius +6.7: Sirius: 58 points, 51.3 expected
  2. 10IFK Göteborg +6.7: IFK Göteborg: 39 points, 32.3 expected
  3. 6Västerås +5.0: Västerås: 45 points, 40.0 expected
  4. 8AIK +4.0: AIK: 41 points, 37.0 expected
  5. 16Halmstad +3.3: Halmstad: 20 points, 16.7 expected
  6. 13Kalmar +1.3: Kalmar: 26 points, 24.7 expected
  7. 4Häcken −0.2: Häcken: 49 points, 49.2 expected
  8. 5Elfsborg −0.4: Elfsborg: 46 points, 46.4 expected
  9. 11Brommapojkarna −0.5: Brommapojkarna: 35 points, 35.5 expected
  10. 14Degerfors −0.9: Degerfors: 20 points, 20.9 expected
  11. 12Mjällby −1.4: Mjällby: 28 points, 29.4 expected
  12. 7Malmö −1.6: Malmö: 41 points, 42.6 expected
  13. 1Hammarby −2.6: Hammarby: 58 points, 60.6 expected
  14. 15Örgryte −3.8: Örgryte: 20 points, 23.8 expected
  15. 3Djurgården −4.2: Djurgården: 52 points, 56.2 expected
  16. 9GAIS −5.1: GAIS: 40 points, 45.1 expected

Expected points use the Pythagorean formula: goals scored to the power of 1.35 divided by goals scored to the power of 1.35 plus goals conceded to the power of 1.35, times the league average of 1.38 points per team and match. It is a model, not the truth, and the difference is not only luck.

After round 28